WC 2010

So the circus is back in town. Football, probably more than any sport except the Olympics, is basically divided into eras – from one World Cup to another. Yes, the domestic and inter-continental leagues happen each year, and some of the world’s best and the greatest play together and against week-in and week-out. But there is no sporting event on planet Earth that comes close to rivalling the Football World Cup in terms of emotions, interest and passion.

Legends are made and broken. Reputations destroyed and enhanced. Heroes turn villains, and villains become idols. But if you look close enough, a football World Cup involves more luck than probably any other major tournament.

For starters, you need to be a born in the right country and the right generation just to make it to World Cup even once. This disqualifies considerable talents such as George Best, George Weah and Ryan Giggs.

Let’s say you are born such that your country can make it to the World Cup on a regular basis, at least during your career. Then, you better be fit and firing during the World Cup year. How many times have we seen good players unable to play world cups because they lost form just the year of the World Cup? We all know that form can desert anyone, at anytime.

Now that you made it to the World Cup, there are questions about the coach, the team motivation and harmony, form and fitness of team-mates (as if it wasn’t enough to worry about your own) and of course, the draw Gods.

Once you start playing actually, the referees can decide to play spoilsport or Godfather depending on – what else, but luck of course! And if all of this wasn’t enough, we always have the penalty shoot-out to remind us of what luck can do in a World Cup. This is not meant to say that we are watching Russian Roulette, but it does help you put the whole thing into context.

Anyways, regardless of whatever it is, I love every minute of it. Probably because it comes along only once every four years. Probably because only seven nations have shared the 18 world cups played to date. For a sport that boasts more members than the United Nations, that is like a permanent member seat in the Security Council at the UN.

Now, I like playing predictor. So, yes you guessed it right, I am now going to go ahead and put my neck on the line and predict this World Cup. I will be revising the picks again after each round – Group stage, Round 2, QF and SF. Obviously, comments are welcome J.

Group A – South Africa, Mexico, Uruguay, France

How will it play out?

No host has ever failed to get out of the group stage, but I feel that South Africa will be the first to that dubious distinction. The team has really regressed over the past decade, and they are in a group of grizzled and veteran WC teams. While the French have the best squad in the group, their coach is a huge negative for them and the form of some key players is also questionable. Uruguay has a potent front line, but not much else. Mexico on the other hand looks more balanced, especially with the good form of Carlos Vela and dos Santos, and the return from injury of Rafael Marquez.

My Pick

Winners: Mexico (A1)

Runners-up: France (A2)

Group B: Argentina, Nigeria, South Korea, Greece

How will it play out?

The Albiceleste has to be the favourite here. Regardless of the coaching circus, there is far too much talent in this Argentine team for a group of this level. Second place could be very tight. Nigeria obviously has some home advantage, but this Nigerian team is nowhere as exciting as some of the earlier versions. South Koreans have got the big match experience at World Cups and generally put up a good fight. Greece surprised everyone once, but I would not bet on an encore.

My Pick

Winners: Argentina (B1)

Runners-up: South Korea (B2)

Group C: England, USA, Algeria, Slovenia

How will it play out?

The big game here is the opener – England v/s the USA. On paper, mano-a-mano, England should win this at a canter. But the Americans played brilliantly in the Confed Cup last year and they are a good, physical side with a playing style very similar to that of the English. Throw in the fact that England has a shaky goal-keeper (whoever it is!) and the US have a steady one in Tim Howard, and we could be in for a surprise. Still, with Capello in-charge, I expect England to handle this one. Algeria and Slovenia are good competitors and could make it tough for the two bigger teams, but I do not think we are seeing an upset here.

My Pick

Winners: England (C1)

Runners-up: USA (C2)

Group D: Germany, Australia, Serbia, Ghana

How will it play out?

With a fit Michael Essien, Ghana would have been one of the dark-horses for a deep run in the tournament. But, without their injured talisman, I don’t think they are playing a 4^th game in this World Cup. Yes, we all know that the Germans are good at winning World Cup games, but I sense it won’t be so easy this time. Goal keeping tragedies, too many injuries including that to captain, talisman and engine room Ballack, out of form strikers and a slippery group can make for a heady concoction. Serbia qualified top in France’s group, even winning away in Paris. They have Vidic in defence, Zigic in attack and Inter’s Stankovic pulling the strings in the midfield. A very organized and solid team indeed. The Aussies were terrific 4 years ago, and much of that squad remains. But, they might find it difficult to play to the same level, especially without that master tactician Guus Hiddink.

My Pick

Winners: Serbia (D1)

Runners-up: Germany (D2)

Group E: Holland, Denmark, Cameron, Japan

How will it play out?

The Oranje have to be the form team here, especially given the form of Sneijder and Robben, notwithstanding the injury to the latter. This of course in addition to their fearsome forward line of van Persie, Elia, van der Waart, Dirk Kuyt and van Huntelaar. Second place for me is a toss-up between the organized and the disciplined Danes and the volatile but talented Cameron. Denmark won a group containing Sweden and Portugal, but do not have any game-changer outside of Bendtner. Cameron is led by captain and star-striker Samuel Eto’o, but how much support he receives will be crucial. I think the home advantage will win the day. Japan will be happy with any points that they can get.

My Pick

Winners: Holland (E1)

Runners-up: Cameron (B2)

Group F: Italy, Paraguay, Slovakia, New Zealand

How will it play out?

The reigning World Champions look anything but that. An old squad, mainly consisting of 2006 veterans, minus some of the creative talents such as Totti and del Piero and the injury to Pirlo, this is a team past it’s expiry date. Last 8 should be the ceiling of their progress this time round. In-fact, an early defeat will serve them well as it will force them to blood youngsters and inject some much-needed fresh blood into a stale-looking Azzuri squad. But, the draw gods have been kind and Italy are a big WC team, and so should definitely make it out of the group. New Zealand will be happy just to be playing in South Africa, and shouldn’t really trouble anyone. Slovakia are not a much fancied team, but obviously did something right in winning a group containing the Czechs and the Slovenians. Whether they have the flair and the mental strength to make it count on the big stage, remains to be seen. Paraguay is my dark-horse in this group. A strong qualifying campaign where in they finished second in South America and a perennial last sixteen candidate, I think they could top this group.

My Pick

Winners: Paraguay (F1)

Runners-up: Italy (F2)

Group G: Brazil, North Korea, Ivory Coast, Portugal

How will it play out?

Easily the Group of Death. The only surety is Brazil: too efficient, too ruthless and too much class for any of the others. North Korea, though an unknown with a reputation for tight defense, will probably find the firepower too much in this group. If not for this group, the Ivory Coast would have been Africa’s best bet for a long run in the tournament. But, here, even to reach the last eight, they will have get past Portugal and possibly Spain. Nani’s injury makes it lot closer, but Ivory Coast’s recent performances, combined with Sven Goran Eriksson as coach will ensure that they watch the eliminations from home.

My Pick

Winners: Brazil (G1)

Runners-up: Portugal (G2)

Group H: Spain, Switzerland, Honduras, Chile

How will it play out?

I will not discuss Spain – it is pointless regardless of who is playing and who isn’t. Chile had a fabulous qualifying campaign and plays an attacking brand of soccer. Honduras has some good players, but the overall lack of quality might do them in. The Swiss became the first team to go out of a World Cup without conceding a goal during the last edition, and are a very organized, disciplined, if unimaginative side. My gut feel: Chile faces Brazil in a rematch of 1998.

My Pick

Winners: Spain (H1)

Runners-up: Chile (H2)

ROUND 2

Mexico beats South Korea: Too much experience and talent for the Koreans.

England beats Germany: Too much talent, and a wily old coach dump the Germans out.

USA beats Serbia: Close game, just shaded by the American’s superior attacking talent.

Argentina beats France: Messi and friends put the French out of their misery (what with Abidal at centre back and Domenech on the bench!)

Netherlands beats Italy: Repeat of Euro 2008 group game.

Brazil beats Chile: no explanations needed.

Cameron beats Paraguay: Home soil and Eto’o.

Spain beats Portugal: There is only so much Cristiano Ronaldo can do, especially when Xavi-Iniesta have the ball, and then they pass it to Villa or Torres.

QUARTERFINALS

Brazil beats Netherlands: A goal-fest, and possibly a classic, but the greater steel of the Brazilians wins the day

England beats Mexico: Capello and Rooney are too much for Mexico.

Argentina beats USA: Maradona gets them playing well, and Argentina holds too many aces for the Americans

Spain beats Cameron: Spain are way too classy.

SEMIFINALS

Brazil beats England: The class gulf (Kaka, Maicon, GK) and the big-game temperament of the Samba Kings comes to fore.

Spain beats Argentina: Too close to call, but the overall team game of the Iberians shines through.

THIRD PLACE

Argentina beats England: How can Maradona lose to the English?

FINALS

Brazil beats Spain: Dream final. Possibly the game of the tournament, but it is a World Cup final, and Brazil does not often lose there.

AWARDS

Golden Boot: Luis Fabiano (Brazil)

Golden Ball: Kaka (Brazil) (Xavi has too much competition in his team itself)

Best Goalkeeper: Juilo Cesar (Brazil)

Next edition: night of 25^th June