Friday, June 25, 2010

Round 2...and beyond

So, 75% of the World Cup is over, as far as the number of games is concerned. But, of course, for all practical purposes, it starts now. France and Italy are among the big names dumped out, and but rightly so. France never recovered from Domenech. Lippi kept too much faith in his old guard, only bringing on Quagrialella when things got really desperate. Hopefully, they should both be wiser for the experience and we might see these two teams strong again in 2 years time.

The good thing so far has been that all the deserving teams have gone through (imagine if Switzerland had qualified). This should make for an interesting tournament from here. No team is yet to play so brilliantly so as to establish themselves as firm favourites. Each has shown its strengths and weaknesses at various times. This means the list of favourites is still the same it was pre-tournament J.

So, in the 1st round, I got 7/16 qualifying positions correct, and 12/16 qualifiers also right. Regardless of whether you think that is a good hit ratio or bad, I shall not break my promise, and so here I subject you to another round of predictions. Read on...

Uruguay v/s South Korea

The Koreans have been very entertaining and good value for money so far. They have a good attacking shape and, led by Park Ji-Sung, have been able to find the net. But their defence looks shaky, especially against quality forward lines.

Uruguay comes across as a rugged team, with seasoned veterans such as Lugano leading the back line, and Forlan terrorizing the opposing defences. Ever since the second game, when Cavani came in and allowed Forlan to drop in the hole behind the front two, Uruguay’s attack has had more bite.

My prediction: Uruguay

USA v/s Ghana

This will be a nasty match, with both teams having compact defences and not too many creative players. Both create chances, and both struggle to put them away. US are the conventional favourites here, but I will go with the Black stars, especially in an African WC.

My prediction: Ghana

Germany v/s England

A mouth-watering second round clash. England has the more seasoned players, a more assured defence, a solid midfield and a genuine match winner up front. The Germans on the other hand, have a better goalie, a more creative mid field which has looked thrilling at times, a shaky back line, but a more attacking full back (Lahm). You get the jist – both have strengths and weakness, and whoever balances this better will go through.

It will be fun watching Terry and his partner face Ozil and Mueller, who have shown some refreshing play with pace, trickery, and lovely touch football at times. England has looked sluggish and even afraid at times, with their players looking confused and Rooney looking a shadow of the player we saw this past season.

Germans are also Germans – Klose and Podolski couldn’t buy a goal in the entire season, but both scored within 25 minutes in the 1st game. They just love the World Cups. For England, this is the last chance for a very good generation of players (Gerard, Lampard, Terry) to fill that missing hole in their CV – a deep run at a world tournament. I had predicted this match-up (though in the other half with England qualifying as group winners) and had chosen England then, but from what I have seen so far...

My Prediction: Germany

Argentina v/s Mexico

Mexico have great attacking threat on the wings and the super-sub (God knows why!) Javier Hernandez is a dangerous striker. But their defence has looked very shaky, and while Argentina's back line is not exactly Italy’06, they should be able to handle the Mexican attack. As far as the Albieceleste’s attack goes, it doesn’t need much introduction. Importantly for the Argies, Messi has looked in form and the goals shouldn’t be far away. Even if he doesn’t score, he has enough team-mates who can.

My Prediction: Argentina

Netherlands v/s Slovakia

The Dutch have been very un-Dutch yet, playing solid but unspectacular football. That might change from now though with Robben coming back in to the team. Defence and goalkeeping remain suspects, but they should be able to handle Slovakia.

My prediction: Netherlands

Brazil v/s Chile

Chile has played with a 3-3-1-3, something not seen since the 1930s. Brazil has played with such power and discipline, it almost doesn’t look like Brazil. But Dunga believes it is the need of the hour, and going by the performances and the results so far, one cannot argue with him. Kaka’s red card did show how they could have used a Ronaldhinho, but clearly Dunga has picked a squad he thinks would deliver title number 6. Fabiano and Maicon have been in great form, and Kaka was also picking up pace before being harshly sent off.

Chile has played with such abandon, it even out-attacked Spain. While this sounds very romantic, it often doesn’t win you too many matches these days. Add the fact that Brazil trashed Chile 4-2 and 3-0 in qualifying.

My prediction: Brazil


Paraguay v/s Japan

Japan has been the surprise package to me, especially their 3-1 win over the Danes, who are generally pretty organized and disciplined. They have a genuine threat from set pieces, and so far have come across a pretty disciplined side in defence. Paraguay is in unfamiliar territory, since the last three times they reached the last sixteen, they were the under-dogs (against France 1998, Germany 2002, Argentina 2006). This time, though, they will be expected to use that big-match experience to stop the Samurais. As usual, the South Americans have looked solid defensively, and with Santa Cruz coming back, pack more of a punch in attack.

My prediction: Paraguay

Spain v/s Portugal

The other big-ticket game of Round 2. Iberian neighbours, this could be a cracker. Portugal has actually played better than I expected it to, with players not named Ronaldo also pulling their weight. But then, a lack of quality can only be hidden up to a certain point. Lack of world class support for CR7, and absence of a quality forward will come to hurt them sooner or later.

Spain almost threw the entire WC into disarray with their opening game loss, but came back strong to become only the third team to top the group after losing its opener. Some issues still persist. Torres has not really looked the part upfront, and del Bosque might be tempted to play another mid-fielder in his place (Fabregas, Navas or Silva). Xavi is yet to touch his heights of Euro, but on the flip side, Iniesta has looked fit and Villa has been on a tear, tying Higuain and Mattek for the Golden Ball lead.

My prediction: Spain

QUARTER FINALS

Uruguay beats Ghana: Finishing abilities the difference

Argentina beats Germany: Lionel Andreas Messi

Spain beats Paraguay: Class difference

Brazil beats Netherland: Shaky defence and Brazil’s power undo the Dutch

SEMIS

Brazil beats Uruguay: Do I need to explain this?

Argentina beats Spain: A WC classic, but Messi the difference

Third Place

Spain beats Uruguay

FINALS

Brazil beats Argentina: The Dream Final (even Brazil-Spain would be one). Messi will be terrific, but a ruthless, efficient Brazil shall triumph.

AWARDS

Golden Ball: Lionel Messi

Golden Shoe: David Villa or Diego Forlan

Best Goalie: Juilo Caesar

6 comments:

  1. haha!! Sengu might just like the finals :) (we should send him this blog's link)

    But, I don't think that Ghana will be able to beat USA, as the Americans have played well.

    Also, i'm not so sure of South Korea and Japan losing so easily, one of them might just go forward.

    But ya, the rest of the draw seems likely, with Brazil meeting either Argentina or Spain in the finals. (unless England or Germany do something unlikely).

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  2. Great analysis. Seems you have done your homework well.
    But I think its too soon to predict that "La Furia Roja" will cool under the Messi touch. Or the African underdogs will crumble in front of Uruguay. I also think that Slovakia will beat Dutch team. We saw the Italy game they will tear the Dutch defence. But overall the matches for semis will remain as you have predicted.
    And you should change the post a little (Diego taking the trophy once again) and we will send the link to Sengu. At least paper to easy ho jayega. :P

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  3. Agree with most of the predictions except USA-Ghana and England-Germany. Still the semi-finalists won't change. :)

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  4. Meet, very detailed analysis but you have chosen all teams who are favorite to win! There will be upsets in the Round of 16. England will go further than predicted!

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  5. and Ghana has proved me right! :)

    @Anand: Yes, I have chosen most strong teams, but I did pick some upsets in Group stage. Eventually, analysis has to be supported by logic - that's why the upset is a surprise :)

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