Quarter Final Predictions

So, after a 100% prediction record in Round 2, I am all the more encouraged to stick my neck out in the quarters too.

Here we go...

BRAZIL v/s THE NETHERLANDS

I shall break the teams down by positions, and see who has the upper hand (at least on paper and as per the form book)

Defence: The easiest analysis of this match. Julio Caesar is easily 2 notches above Stekelenburg (or whatever it is!). And the back four of Brazil has arguably been the best so far on display in South Africa. Not only are they stronger defensively, but even offensively Brazil’s back four have been massive. Maicon is better than the best wingers on most teams, Lucio has had 11 solo runs out of the defence in this WC, which is the third highest number of solo runs in this tourney, amongst all players, and Juan scored the opener in the second round defeat of Chile. While the Dutch defense has not made Robert Green blunders yet, it is also true that it is yet to face a line-up anywhere as potent as Brazil's. van Bronckhorst at left back will be found out by Maicon /Alves, and the central defenders are not exactly Cannavaro and Nesta (2006 versions ofcourse!). Advantage Brazil.

Midfield: Both teams have an array of talented players (the Dutch more than the Selecao) but have so far been pragmatic and clinical, without being adventurous. Both have been content to sit back and hit on the break. The Dutch have skipper van Bommel and de Jong, whereas Brazil has 2002 veteran Gilberto Silva along with anyone of Ramires, Elano, Felipe Melo or Kleberson. These pairs have provided the base from which talents such as Kaka, Robben, Sneijder, Robinho and van Persie have launched themselves. The only place where Brazil might have an edge here is the performance of the defensive midfielders, especially with van Bommel known to be a short fuse.

Forwards: Both teams possess an array of attacking talent that could win the WC. Robin van Persie, Kuyt, Elia, Fabiano and Nilmar are all capable of winning matches on their own. Fabiano has been in good form, Kuyt will always give a good fight, but van Persie is yet to rise to occasion. Elia has been impressive but the depth of the squad and the requirements of the formation means that he will mostly start on the bench. Equal here.

My pick: The match will probably not live up to the hype, but Brazil’s stronger defence and clinical attack should seal the day.

URUGUAY v/s GHANA

Defence: Both these teams have been very strong at the back, and the goalies have also been steady. Not much to choose here. While Uruguay have more experienced campaigners such as Lugano marshalling the back line, Ghana have done brilliantly to reach so far without Essien, and their back line has not been breached easily. Uruguay might miss the services of Godin, but overall, this should not be the difference. Draw.

Attack: Ghana has benefitted massively from the play of Anthony Annan, their holding midfielder and the wingers have taken advantage of this. Uruguay have been compact in the middle, but have re-jigged their system to make Forlan play in the hole. Forlan is extremely dangerous here since he has two good strikers to feed into and he is no slouch at finishing either. Ghana have created many chances, but wastefulness has often stopped them from scoring more. Gyan Asamoah has been inspirational upfront, and he could prove a difference maker. Luis Suarez scored a brace in the second round, and he seems to be peaking at the right time. Advantage Uruguay.

My pick: Defensively, both teams are compact and rugged, and the difference could be in the attack. Both create chances, but Uruguay has the luxury of two top notch finishers, and in what I expect to be a tight game, that could be vital. Ghana will surely have the home support, and if it goes to penalties, but I think the Latinos might just shade this. Expect extra time in this one.

Round 2...and beyond

So, 75% of the World Cup is over, as far as the number of games is concerned. But, of course, for all practical purposes, it starts now. France and Italy are among the big names dumped out, and but rightly so. France never recovered from Domenech. Lippi kept too much faith in his old guard, only bringing on Quagrialella when things got really desperate. Hopefully, they should both be wiser for the experience and we might see these two teams strong again in 2 years time.

The good thing so far has been that all the deserving teams have gone through (imagine if Switzerland had qualified). This should make for an interesting tournament from here. No team is yet to play so brilliantly so as to establish themselves as firm favourites. Each has shown its strengths and weaknesses at various times. This means the list of favourites is still the same it was pre-tournament J.

So, in the 1^st round, I got 7/16 qualifying positions correct, and 12/16 qualifiers also right. Regardless of whether you think that is a good hit ratio or bad, I shall not break my promise, and so here I subject you to another round of predictions. Read on...

Uruguay v/s South Korea

The Koreans have been very entertaining and good value for money so far. They have a good attacking shape and, led by Park Ji-Sung, have been able to find the net. But their defence looks shaky, especially against quality forward lines.

Uruguay comes across as a rugged team, with seasoned veterans such as Lugano leading the back line, and Forlan terrorizing the opposing defences. Ever since the second game, when Cavani came in and allowed Forlan to drop in the hole behind the front two, Uruguay’s attack has had more bite.

My prediction: Uruguay

USA v/s Ghana

This will be a nasty match, with both teams having compact defences and not too many creative players. Both create chances, and both struggle to put them away. US are the conventional favourites here, but I will go with the Black stars, especially in an African WC.

My prediction: Ghana

Germany v/s England

A mouth-watering second round clash. England has the more seasoned players, a more assured defence, a solid midfield and a genuine match winner up front. The Germans on the other hand, have a better goalie, a more creative mid field which has looked thrilling at times, a shaky back line, but a more attacking full back (Lahm). You get the jist – both have strengths and weakness, and whoever balances this better will go through.

It will be fun watching Terry and his partner face Ozil and Mueller, who have shown some refreshing play with pace, trickery, and lovely touch football at times. England has looked sluggish and even afraid at times, with their players looking confused and Rooney looking a shadow of the player we saw this past season.

Germans are also Germans – Klose and Podolski couldn’t buy a goal in the entire season, but both scored within 25 minutes in the 1^st game. They just love the World Cups. For England, this is the last chance for a very good generation of players (Gerard, Lampard, Terry) to fill that missing hole in their CV – a deep run at a world tournament. I had predicted this match-up (though in the other half with England qualifying as group winners) and had chosen England then, but from what I have seen so far...

My Prediction: Germany

Argentina v/s Mexico

Mexico have great attacking threat on the wings and the super-sub (God knows why!) Javier Hernandez is a dangerous striker. But their defence has looked very shaky, and while Argentina's back line is not exactly Italy’06, they should be able to handle the Mexican attack. As far as the Albieceleste’s attack goes, it doesn’t need much introduction. Importantly for the Argies, Messi has looked in form and the goals shouldn’t be far away. Even if he doesn’t score, he has enough team-mates who can.

My Prediction: Argentina

Netherlands v/s Slovakia

The Dutch have been very un-Dutch yet, playing solid but unspectacular football. That might change from now though with Robben coming back in to the team. Defence and goalkeeping remain suspects, but they should be able to handle Slovakia.

My prediction: Netherlands

Brazil v/s Chile

Chile has played with a 3-3-1-3, something not seen since the 1930s. Brazil has played with such power and discipline, it almost doesn’t look like Brazil. But Dunga believes it is the need of the hour, and going by the performances and the results so far, one cannot argue with him. Kaka’s red card did show how they could have used a Ronaldhinho, but clearly Dunga has picked a squad he thinks would deliver title number 6. Fabiano and Maicon have been in great form, and Kaka was also picking up pace before being harshly sent off.

Chile has played with such abandon, it even out-attacked Spain. While this sounds very romantic, it often doesn’t win you too many matches these days. Add the fact that Brazil trashed Chile 4-2 and 3-0 in qualifying.

My prediction: Brazil

Paraguay v/s Japan

Japan has been the surprise package to me, especially their 3-1 win over the Danes, who are generally pretty organized and disciplined. They have a genuine threat from set pieces, and so far have come across a pretty disciplined side in defence. Paraguay is in unfamiliar territory, since the last three times they reached the last sixteen, they were the under-dogs (against France 1998, Germany 2002, Argentina 2006). This time, though, they will be expected to use that big-match experience to stop the Samurais. As usual, the South Americans have looked solid defensively, and with Santa Cruz coming back, pack more of a punch in attack.

My prediction: Paraguay

Spain v/s Portugal

The other big-ticket game of Round 2. Iberian neighbours, this could be a cracker. Portugal has actually played better than I expected it to, with players not named Ronaldo also pulling their weight. But then, a lack of quality can only be hidden up to a certain point. Lack of world class support for CR7, and absence of a quality forward will come to hurt them sooner or later.

Spain almost threw the entire WC into disarray with their opening game loss, but came back strong to become only the third team to top the group after losing its opener. Some issues still persist. Torres has not really looked the part upfront, and del Bosque might be tempted to play another mid-fielder in his place (Fabregas, Navas or Silva). Xavi is yet to touch his heights of Euro, but on the flip side, Iniesta has looked fit and Villa has been on a tear, tying Higuain and Mattek for the Golden Ball lead.

My prediction: Spain

QUARTER FINALS

Uruguay beats Ghana: Finishing abilities the difference

Argentina beats Germany: Lionel Andreas Messi

Spain beats Paraguay: Class difference

Brazil beats Netherland: Shaky defence and Brazil’s power undo the Dutch

SEMIS

Brazil beats Uruguay: Do I need to explain this?

Argentina beats Spain: A WC classic, but Messi the difference

Third Place

Spain beats Uruguay

FINALS

Brazil beats Argentina: The Dream Final (even Brazil-Spain would be one). Messi will be terrific, but a ruthless, efficient Brazil shall triumph.

AWARDS

Golden Ball: Lionel Messi

Golden Shoe: David Villa or Diego Forlan

Best Goalie: Juilo Caesar

Random Early thoughts on the World Cup

(Updated at the half time of Alg-Slo game)

Home soil factor counts. It really does. I mean RSA played quite a decent game against Mexico, and while I still do not see them going through, they might be a tougher opposition than expected. Considering the pedigree of their players otherwise, it can only be put down to those Vuvuzelas. (How I hate them!)

If only Forlan could buy one decent midfielder to supply half a dozen passes to him. We all know how many he scores week-in, week-out, but what was impressive was the effort he was making. Can’t say the same about star players all the time.

Sydney Govou’s miss in the 7^th minute against Uruguay has to be one of the contenders for the miss of the tournament

So has to be Higuain’s miss early in the game against Nigeria.

I expected Greece to struggle to reach the heights of 2004, but I never thought they would be this dis-interested.

Matches between Argentina, South Korea and Nigeria should be fun.

At the risk of stating the obvious, and the oft-repeated, it is scary when your substitute strikers are Diego Milito and Sergio Aguero.

Argentina’s forwards performances this season: Messi – 47 goals, Milito – 30 goals, Higuain – 29 goals, Tevez – 29 goals, Aguero – 20 goals. (includes goals in all competitions)

Argentina’s performance was very much like their coach – stuff to like and dislike at the same time. The biggest positive though: felt like Messi was playing in the Barca kit. If he keeps this form, Argentina can go really deep.

What’s common between Erikkson, McLaren, Capello, apart from the fact that they are/were all England managers?

They cannot find a way to play Gerard and Lampard together effectively in central midfield.

My 2 pence: If these two play together, we might always have a situation where the sum is lesser than the parts. They contribute so much because at club level simply because there is no one else to do that there. And when they are together, there is only so much they can do. Something like Kaka and Ronaldinho. May be Stevie G should play in the hole behind Rooney.

With all due respect to the Anfield faithful, Carragher looks old, and it shows.

For all the quality on the pitch of the English side, they cannot retain possession.

Emile Heskey’s position should not be listed as striker. He cannot strike even if his life depended on it.

Maradona was so active on the sidelines, I won’t be surprised if he put on the kit and came on a sub if things got really desperate.

Can’t believe Algeria and Slovenia actually beat Egypt and Russia, respectively, to get here. This is the worst game so far.

Contrast of the day: Argentina celebrated their win over Nigeria as if they had won the WC. Capello was so pissed after Gerard’s goal, as if England had conceded and not scored. All the more so considering the huge expectations in both nations.

Next words from XL.

WC 2010

So the circus is back in town. Football, probably more than any sport except the Olympics, is basically divided into eras – from one World Cup to another. Yes, the domestic and inter-continental leagues happen each year, and some of the world’s best and the greatest play together and against week-in and week-out. But there is no sporting event on planet Earth that comes close to rivalling the Football World Cup in terms of emotions, interest and passion.

Legends are made and broken. Reputations destroyed and enhanced. Heroes turn villains, and villains become idols. But if you look close enough, a football World Cup involves more luck than probably any other major tournament.

For starters, you need to be a born in the right country and the right generation just to make it to World Cup even once. This disqualifies considerable talents such as George Best, George Weah and Ryan Giggs.

Let’s say you are born such that your country can make it to the World Cup on a regular basis, at least during your career. Then, you better be fit and firing during the World Cup year. How many times have we seen good players unable to play world cups because they lost form just the year of the World Cup? We all know that form can desert anyone, at anytime.

Now that you made it to the World Cup, there are questions about the coach, the team motivation and harmony, form and fitness of team-mates (as if it wasn’t enough to worry about your own) and of course, the draw Gods.

Once you start playing actually, the referees can decide to play spoilsport or Godfather depending on – what else, but luck of course! And if all of this wasn’t enough, we always have the penalty shoot-out to remind us of what luck can do in a World Cup. This is not meant to say that we are watching Russian Roulette, but it does help you put the whole thing into context.

Anyways, regardless of whatever it is, I love every minute of it. Probably because it comes along only once every four years. Probably because only seven nations have shared the 18 world cups played to date. For a sport that boasts more members than the United Nations, that is like a permanent member seat in the Security Council at the UN.

Now, I like playing predictor. So, yes you guessed it right, I am now going to go ahead and put my neck on the line and predict this World Cup. I will be revising the picks again after each round – Group stage, Round 2, QF and SF. Obviously, comments are welcome J.

Group A – South Africa, Mexico, Uruguay, France

How will it play out?

No host has ever failed to get out of the group stage, but I feel that South Africa will be the first to that dubious distinction. The team has really regressed over the past decade, and they are in a group of grizzled and veteran WC teams. While the French have the best squad in the group, their coach is a huge negative for them and the form of some key players is also questionable. Uruguay has a potent front line, but not much else. Mexico on the other hand looks more balanced, especially with the good form of Carlos Vela and dos Santos, and the return from injury of Rafael Marquez.

My Pick

Winners: Mexico (A1)

Runners-up: France (A2)

Group B: Argentina, Nigeria, South Korea, Greece

How will it play out?

The Albiceleste has to be the favourite here. Regardless of the coaching circus, there is far too much talent in this Argentine team for a group of this level. Second place could be very tight. Nigeria obviously has some home advantage, but this Nigerian team is nowhere as exciting as some of the earlier versions. South Koreans have got the big match experience at World Cups and generally put up a good fight. Greece surprised everyone once, but I would not bet on an encore.

My Pick

Winners: Argentina (B1)

Runners-up: South Korea (B2)

Group C: England, USA, Algeria, Slovenia

How will it play out?

The big game here is the opener – England v/s the USA. On paper, mano-a-mano, England should win this at a canter. But the Americans played brilliantly in the Confed Cup last year and they are a good, physical side with a playing style very similar to that of the English. Throw in the fact that England has a shaky goal-keeper (whoever it is!) and the US have a steady one in Tim Howard, and we could be in for a surprise. Still, with Capello in-charge, I expect England to handle this one. Algeria and Slovenia are good competitors and could make it tough for the two bigger teams, but I do not think we are seeing an upset here.

My Pick

Winners: England (C1)

Runners-up: USA (C2)

Group D: Germany, Australia, Serbia, Ghana

How will it play out?

With a fit Michael Essien, Ghana would have been one of the dark-horses for a deep run in the tournament. But, without their injured talisman, I don’t think they are playing a 4^th game in this World Cup. Yes, we all know that the Germans are good at winning World Cup games, but I sense it won’t be so easy this time. Goal keeping tragedies, too many injuries including that to captain, talisman and engine room Ballack, out of form strikers and a slippery group can make for a heady concoction. Serbia qualified top in France’s group, even winning away in Paris. They have Vidic in defence, Zigic in attack and Inter’s Stankovic pulling the strings in the midfield. A very organized and solid team indeed. The Aussies were terrific 4 years ago, and much of that squad remains. But, they might find it difficult to play to the same level, especially without that master tactician Guus Hiddink.

My Pick

Winners: Serbia (D1)

Runners-up: Germany (D2)

Group E: Holland, Denmark, Cameron, Japan

How will it play out?

The Oranje have to be the form team here, especially given the form of Sneijder and Robben, notwithstanding the injury to the latter. This of course in addition to their fearsome forward line of van Persie, Elia, van der Waart, Dirk Kuyt and van Huntelaar. Second place for me is a toss-up between the organized and the disciplined Danes and the volatile but talented Cameron. Denmark won a group containing Sweden and Portugal, but do not have any game-changer outside of Bendtner. Cameron is led by captain and star-striker Samuel Eto’o, but how much support he receives will be crucial. I think the home advantage will win the day. Japan will be happy with any points that they can get.

My Pick

Winners: Holland (E1)

Runners-up: Cameron (B2)

Group F: Italy, Paraguay, Slovakia, New Zealand

How will it play out?

The reigning World Champions look anything but that. An old squad, mainly consisting of 2006 veterans, minus some of the creative talents such as Totti and del Piero and the injury to Pirlo, this is a team past it’s expiry date. Last 8 should be the ceiling of their progress this time round. In-fact, an early defeat will serve them well as it will force them to blood youngsters and inject some much-needed fresh blood into a stale-looking Azzuri squad. But, the draw gods have been kind and Italy are a big WC team, and so should definitely make it out of the group. New Zealand will be happy just to be playing in South Africa, and shouldn’t really trouble anyone. Slovakia are not a much fancied team, but obviously did something right in winning a group containing the Czechs and the Slovenians. Whether they have the flair and the mental strength to make it count on the big stage, remains to be seen. Paraguay is my dark-horse in this group. A strong qualifying campaign where in they finished second in South America and a perennial last sixteen candidate, I think they could top this group.

My Pick

Winners: Paraguay (F1)

Runners-up: Italy (F2)

Group G: Brazil, North Korea, Ivory Coast, Portugal

How will it play out?

Easily the Group of Death. The only surety is Brazil: too efficient, too ruthless and too much class for any of the others. North Korea, though an unknown with a reputation for tight defense, will probably find the firepower too much in this group. If not for this group, the Ivory Coast would have been Africa’s best bet for a long run in the tournament. But, here, even to reach the last eight, they will have get past Portugal and possibly Spain. Nani’s injury makes it lot closer, but Ivory Coast’s recent performances, combined with Sven Goran Eriksson as coach will ensure that they watch the eliminations from home.

My Pick

Winners: Brazil (G1)

Runners-up: Portugal (G2)

Group H: Spain, Switzerland, Honduras, Chile

How will it play out?

I will not discuss Spain – it is pointless regardless of who is playing and who isn’t. Chile had a fabulous qualifying campaign and plays an attacking brand of soccer. Honduras has some good players, but the overall lack of quality might do them in. The Swiss became the first team to go out of a World Cup without conceding a goal during the last edition, and are a very organized, disciplined, if unimaginative side. My gut feel: Chile faces Brazil in a rematch of 1998.

My Pick

Winners: Spain (H1)

Runners-up: Chile (H2)

ROUND 2

Mexico beats South Korea: Too much experience and talent for the Koreans.

England beats Germany: Too much talent, and a wily old coach dump the Germans out.

USA beats Serbia: Close game, just shaded by the American’s superior attacking talent.

Argentina beats France: Messi and friends put the French out of their misery (what with Abidal at centre back and Domenech on the bench!)

Netherlands beats Italy: Repeat of Euro 2008 group game.

Brazil beats Chile: no explanations needed.

Cameron beats Paraguay: Home soil and Eto’o.

Spain beats Portugal: There is only so much Cristiano Ronaldo can do, especially when Xavi-Iniesta have the ball, and then they pass it to Villa or Torres.

QUARTERFINALS

Brazil beats Netherlands: A goal-fest, and possibly a classic, but the greater steel of the Brazilians wins the day

England beats Mexico: Capello and Rooney are too much for Mexico.

Argentina beats USA: Maradona gets them playing well, and Argentina holds too many aces for the Americans

Spain beats Cameron: Spain are way too classy.

SEMIFINALS

Brazil beats England: The class gulf (Kaka, Maicon, GK) and the big-game temperament of the Samba Kings comes to fore.

Spain beats Argentina: Too close to call, but the overall team game of the Iberians shines through.

THIRD PLACE

Argentina beats England: How can Maradona lose to the English?

FINALS

Brazil beats Spain: Dream final. Possibly the game of the tournament, but it is a World Cup final, and Brazil does not often lose there.

AWARDS

Golden Boot: Luis Fabiano (Brazil)

Golden Ball: Kaka (Brazil) (Xavi has too much competition in his team itself)

Best Goalkeeper: Juilo Cesar (Brazil)

Next edition: night of 25^th June